Minicourse: Understanding, Researching and Telling the Story of Climate Extreme Events
Monday 17/10/2022 16:30-18:30- Aula Riunioni, Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Pisa.
Tuesday 18/10/2022 15:00-17:00- Aula Riunioni, Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Pisa.
Abstract: How do we model the average behavior, variability and extreme events of complex systems? Complex is what we perceive as spatially, temporally and dynamically rich and aesthetically beautiful. This richness comes in the form of turbulent eddies, the rage of a thunderstorm, or the exponentially rapid spread of a virus or an economic crisis. In this course, I present the viewpoint of statistical physics and dynamical systems theory to illustrate mathematical tools that act as magnifying glasses on complex systems. With these tools, we can determine the number of variables, equations, or data we need to describe a specific event, whether or not it turns out to be extreme for the system we are examining. Finally, I will present my activity in communicating the beauty and richness of complex systems and their extremes in images, sounds and even with a video game on climate extremes. The course focuses on applying tools from dynamical systems theory to climate datasets. These methods may seem very abstract, but I will convince you that they can provide many useful insights into climate variability and extremes. The part of the course describing the methodology will at times be quite technical. The group of attendees promises to be diverse, so we will do our best to cater to both those who approach this topic for the first time and those that are already in part familiar with it. The plan is to have lectures and discussion on the first half day, and some more hands-on exercises on the second half day.
Seminar: Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe
Wednesday Oct 19, 2022, 3:00 PM → 4:00 PM Europe/Rome
SNS – Centro De Giorgi – Aula Seminari
Abstract: The thermodynamic effects of the global-mean anthropogenic warming on the climate system are well documented. However, diagnosing dynamical changes such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging — all the more when focusing on extreme events. Here, we study 1948–2020 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. We identify a positive feedback of the circulation that favours extreme events in Europe under anthropogenic forcing. Only a small number of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant trends in frequency of occurrence in recent decades, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive summertime dryness and heatwaves across Europe, and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern half of the continent. Roughly 95% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with the atmospheric circulation patterns whose frequency of occurrence has been increasing. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions across Europe and cold conditions over the northern parts of the continent. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically-driven year-round warming over most of the continent and increased wintertime surface winds and precipitation in Northern Europe.